Rise in firsts at some English providers ‘unexplained’, warns OfS

English universities are still awarding about 40 per cent more first-class degrees than might be expected, according to the sector regulator, with the number of “unexplained” top marks almost twice that at some institutions.

The proportion of students awarded first-class degrees fell slightly to 29 per cent in 2023-24, but remains significantly higher than in 2010-11, when it was 16 per cent.

A new report from the OfS published on 15 January uses modelling to assess to what extent changes over time could be statistically accounted for by factors that may influence students’ grades, such as subject of study and students’ entry qualifications.

Based on this modelling, 18 per cent of graduates should have received first-class degrees in 2023-24 – 11 percentage points lower than the proportion of graduates who actually did.

Therefore, the OfS said nearly 40 per cent of firsts awarded could not be explained by its statistical model – and this is much higher at some institutions.

At the University of Buckingham, 52 per cent of students achieved firsts in 2023-24 – compared with just 17 per cent in 2010-11. According to the OfS, 73 per cent of these grades are unexplained by modelling – the highest of all universities in the data.

A spokesperson for Buckingham said that it had procedures in place to “ensure our standards are comparable to those across the higher education sector”.

“We firmly believe our students’ grades are a positive outcome of our unique small-group teaching model, which is widely recognised as helping students achieve their potential: student feedback sees us ranked highly in multiple surveys and league tables in the area of teaching and learning. The university is committed to delivering high quality education.”

Birmingham Newman University, the University of East London, Northumbria University and Manchester Metropolitan University also all had at least two-thirds of their firsts categorised as “unexplained”.

The report says there could be a range of possible causes for the sector-wide increase in grades, including improvements to teaching and learning. It may also reflect other factors that could have an inflationary effect on students’ grades, such as changes to degree classification algorithms or to assessment practices.

However, some academics have expressed concern that the “problematic” Office for Students analysis ignores several key factors, questioning whether it is an accurate picture of grade inflation.

Robertas Zubrickas, professor of economics at the University of Bath, said the report overlooked some important factors around grading and teaching.

Zubrickas, who is part of a research project currently looking into “unexplained” grade inflation, said the phenomenon could be seen as a natural consequence of changes in class composition and the distribution of abilities.

And Paul Ashwin, professor of higher education at the University of Lancaster, said attempting to make such precise calculations about explained inflation was “problematic” at an institutional level.

“My reading is that this is a very political document answering policymakers’ concerns about grade inflation,” he told Times Higher Education.

“But I’m not sure it particularly says anything meaningful about grade inflation, given that you can only talk meaningfully about grade inflation at the level of the programme.”

Though attainment fell at a sector-level for the third consecutive year, Jean Arnold, interim director of quality and access, said the OfS needed to remain vigilant to the “risk of unexplained increases becoming embedded and undermining public confidence in the value of a degree”.  

“Students, graduates, and employers must have confidence that higher education qualifications represent an accurate assessment of achievement that stands the test of time,” she said in a statement.

“We know that institutions have been working hard to ensure the degree classifications they award are credible, and our findings suggest their continued efforts are having the right effect.”

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com