International master’s students on the up but visa refusals rise

The proportion of study visas refused by the UK Home Office has increased to its highest level in almost a decade but figures suggest a slight rebound in demand this year.

Home Office data released on 27 February shows that 426,471 sponsored study-related visas were issued in 2025 – 3 per cent more than the year before but 31 per cent below the peak in 2022.

There were also 18,434 visas refused. At 4.1 per cent, this was the highest refusal rate since 2016.

The number of main applicant visas refused was the highest since 2013, which appears to have been caused by changes in the sources of demand for UK courses.

Last year applications from China had an approval rate of more than 99 per cent, and India 97 per cent. These are the UK’s primary source countries for students, but their importance is waning.

Excluding 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic was at its peak, the number of applications from China fell to its lowest level since 2017. Although the number from India increased slightly to 100,446, this is 45 per cent below its peak in 2022.

Other countries have much lower approval rates and they are becoming increasingly important to the UK – including Pakistan (89 per cent approved), Nepal (93 per cent) and Bangladesh (86 per cent).

The number of sponsored study visas issued to Nepalese students rose 63 per cent year-on-year to a record 20,619 – overtaking the US to become the UK’s fifth largest source country, according to the figures.

Experts have warned that new compliance metrics could trigger a further increase in refusal rates.

Matching the rebound seen in the Home Office data, separate figures from the Office for Students suggest that English institutions took in slightly more international postgraduate taught (PGT) students this academic year. 

Its annual Higher Education Students Early Statistics survey asks providers in England to record their likely total student numbers for 2025-26.

Analysis by Times Higher Education shows that there were 201,385 new overseas entrants for PGT courses this year – 2 per cent more than in 2024-25, when there was a significant drop.

However, it shows that international PGT entrants among the Russell Group fell 6 per cent – including large decreases at the University of Nottingham (42 per cent down), the University of York (40 per cent) and the University of Exeter (33 per cent).

Although the headline figures suggest a “simple rebound” story, Vincenzo Raimo, an independent international higher education consultant, said this masked an increasingly “turbulent and segmented” market.

“We’re seeing clear winners and losers, and that redistribution is becoming more pronounced year-on-year. The Russell Group decline in PGT entrants suggests that brand strength alone is no longer enough in a highly price-sensitive environment.”

Outside this mission group, there were large declines in numbers of PGT entrants at the University of Greater Manchester (85 per cent), Bath Spa University (67 per cent) and the University of Cumbria (56 per cent).

Raimo, previously pro vice-chancellor for global engagement at the University of Reading, said some institutions appeared to be prioritising market share while others were protecting margins.

“For many universities, international PGT recruitment is primarily about net contribution. A smaller intake at a higher average fee and lower cost of acquisition may be financially preferable to chasing volume at heavy discount.”

The number of PGT entrants increased dramatically in other parts of the sector. Enrolments more than doubled at the University of Law (131 per cent increase), University of Derby (148 per cent more) and the University of Keele (188 per cent more).

Antonius Raghubansie, pro vice-chancellor international at Keele, said its record intake of international students was driven by developing deeper relationships with agents in key Asian and African countries.

“That has allowed us to ensure risk mitigation is core to our evaluation of what would make for a good fit for student coming into a Keele course.

“It is a volatile and challenging environment in a region that needs global engagement for our home students.”

Raimo said the increased volatility of the market was also being affected by many students in Asia increasingly looking at alternatives closer to home, more tactical pricing behaviour from universities, and agents redistributing demand quickly.

“Strong agent engagement, clear commission structures and operational responsiveness can shift volume rapidly in a nervous market.”

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com