New Zealand university enrolments eclipse pandemic peak

New Zealand university enrolments have surged past their pandemic peak, as a slowing economy and a bulge in youth demographics shepherd more people into higher education.

Data from an April stocktake by the Tertiary Education Commission (TEC), released publicly after being shared with tertiary education minister Penny Simmonds in July, show that university enrolments have climbed 5 per cent this year to exceed the previous high point – in 2021 – by 1 per cent.

Enrolments rose by the equivalent of 5,657 full-time places between April 2025 and April 2026. The growth was monopolised by the universities of Auckland and Canterbury, which attracted 60 per cent of the extra students.

The increases were particularly pronounced at postgraduate level – with PhD enrolments 8 per cent above 2021 levels, and master’s enrolments up by 4 per cent – and in health, law, business, commerce and psychology degrees.

While the figures reveal healthy demand for higher education, they also underscore a funding problem for the country’s universities, which have absorbed increasing numbers of unsubsidised students over the past 18 months.

“There is significant demand for most funds against what TEC is able to provide funding for,” the report warns, while noting that increased allocations in the May budget will cover “some” of the extra demand.

The figures accord with Auckland’s claim of an 8 per cent spike in student numbers in semester one. Sarah Young, Auckland’s deputy vice-chancellor for education, said the upsurge had partly been driven by the growing school-leaver population “which hasn’t yet peaked in New Zealand”.

However, the bubble in school-leaver numbers, the result of a minor baby boom between 2007 and 2010, is expected to end within a few years.

Young said increasing unemployment also appeared to be fuelling a rise in student numbers, consistent with a counter-cyclical relationship that sees tertiary enrolments rise “when the job market is tight”. This previously occurred in 2021, when the Covid-induced economic slowdown coincided with a 9 per cent expansion in university enrolments.

The current economic downturn appears to be driving increases in both student numbers and the time they devote to study, as jobs become scarcer. The average student now undertakes 76 per cent of a full-time study load, a proportion that has been rising since 2022.

Universities have also dominated the post-Covid recovery in international education, attracting 65 per cent of the additional overseas students since 2021. Their foreign enrolments have risen 14 per cent since 2025 and 58 per cent since 2021, led by a surge in onshore admissions at Auckland and offshore programmes delivered by Massey and Waikato universities.

New Zealand had the equivalent of almost 45,600 full-time foreign students in April, the report says, with 64 per cent of them in universities.

The country’s universities have also increased their share of vocational education and training (VET) enrolments, which have risen by 11 per cent since 2021, while numbers at vocational colleges have shrunk.

“Work-based” VET has fared even worse, with apprentice numbers plunging by 34 per cent since 2022, after almost doubling over the previous two years. Apprenticeships are often the first type of employment to be cut during economic downturns.

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com