UK ‘must not be complacent’ over Trump effect on student flows

Declines in international student demand in the US are expected to “accelerate” during 2026, but the UK has been warned not to be “complacent”, given many prospective students will opt to stay home instead of choosing a different destination, according to a new report.

The British Council said the “Trump effect” is having a clear impact on global trends, with enrolments in the US down by 17,000 in December 2025 – a similar number as in the first year of his first term.

With many students making their decisions before Trump assumed power, the British Council said these figures were likely to be an underestimate of the extent of the change. Like eight years ago, experts predicted enrolments will decrease more sharply in the coming years.

“The downturn will likely become more apparent in 2026, dealing a blow to the finances of U.S. higher education institutions that are already facing other pressures from Trump’s administration,” says the body in a new report analysing the latest trends in international education published on 11 March. 

While it cited significant downturns in student demand from the US’ two biggest markets of India and China, it found a “curious” increase from Vietnam, Brazil and parts of South Asia.

The British Council said the downturn presented an opportunity for UK higher education to attract greater numbers of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) students who typically prefer the US.

However, with Canada and Australia not seeing much improvement in their enrolments yet, the report says it was difficult to quantify exactly how much the UK will benefit.

The “overall pie” of international students in major English-speaking host destination countries may be shrinking, as many students increasingly opt to stay home or remain within their own region, it says.

“While the 2026 outlook is reasonably positive overall, now is not the moment for UK HEIs to rest on their laurels or grow complacent.”

As has been evidenced from recent immigration figures, the UK is increasingly looking to South Asia – a region which the British Council called the “most important growth market” in 2026.

It cautioned that universities must avoid any high-profile incidents of visa abuse if the UK wants to escape the “boom-and-bust cycle” of applications from South Asia in recent years.

The report urged UK universities to deepen links with India in 2026 to make the most of recent policy changes from Delhi, particularly in transnational education (TNE).

The researchers also highlighted China as a country with lots of potential growth in TNE. The number of active TNE programmes increased significantly in 2025 in both joint institutes (up 59 per cent) and joint programmes (up 15 per cent).

The British Council said UK institutions are particularly well positioned to benefit from greater policy support for TNE in China, but said making further inroads will likely require supporting the government’s TNE development priorities, which include promoting greater provision in central, western, and north-east regions of China.

“For UK HEIs, deepening TNE links in China will mitigate the impact of decreasing student flows to the UK.”

Maddalaine Ansell, director education at the British Council, said sustainable recruitment of high-quality students from a diverse range of countries is a “core ambition” of the UK’s recent International Education Strategy.

“British Council research suggests that there is a reasonably positive environment for this to be achieved in 2026, as the UK is likely to gain a greater share of international students looking for study in an English-speaking country.

“At the same time, the continuing trend for more students, particularly from South Asia, opting to study in their own regions means we should continue to develop UK TNE programmes.”

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com