No new target for overseas students ‘better than alternatives’

The UK’s new international education strategy has been labelled “bland” and “lacking substance” but one of its architects has warned critics that avoiding further crackdowns should be seen as a win.

While the newly announced strategy did include a target to increase education exports increase to £40 billion by 2030, it neglected to set a new target for growing overseas student numbers. 

There had been hopes for an increase in the target from the 600,000 set in 2019, which was exceeded within one year, to a goal of 1 million by 2030.

But Steve Smith, the government’s international education champion, said the outcome was an “incredibly positive base” from which to continue, given the political circumstances.

“There will be criticism that it could have said more, but I would ask colleagues genuinely to think through the politics,” he told Times Higher Education. “Coming out with no target is a hell of a lot better than someone saying we should actually reduce the target, or saying we’ll keep it where it is.

“It’s a bit like saying to someone, ‘do you love me?’ Because you have to be prepared for the answer being ‘no’.”

The strategy committed to the sustainable recruitment of “high-quality international students” and retaining the Graduate Route, although the government recently shortened this to 18 months.

Smith said this implies that there is “no limit” to student numbers, which is particularly significant given the policy changes witnessed in competing sectors such as Australia, Canada and the US.

“It is a very big statement of a commitment to a stable policy environment, which is very positive in a world in which migration and extra people coming into the country is a politically difficult topic.”

The UK generated £32.3 billion in revenue from education-related exports in 2022 – with tuition fees and living expenditure of international students in higher education making up about 70 per cent of the total.

Transnational education (TNE), which the IES commits to expanding, was responsible for just £3 billion of the total – of which £1 billion came from higher education.

“To get to £40 [billion] from £32 [billion], you are going to have to have an increase in HE earnings directly because it’s very unlikely all the other areas are going to grow enough,” said Smith.

“If we were saying, don’t take international students, do TNE, then…that would be a switch [in priorities], but what we are saying is, by all means, grow your international student income.”

But David Pilsbury, the chief development officer at Oxford International, called the strategy a “real missed opportunity”, highlighting that it contained little detail on how the push for TNE will be achieved or whether money from the international student fee levy will be spent to support recruitment.

He said the document contained “nothing of substance” but only “lots of fine words and exhortations to this that and the other”.

Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi), said “you always have to read between the lines” of such documents and that it was positive that the strategy does not have any “new crackdowns”.

“Having said that, we are still waiting for a bunch of them to be implemented from the immigration White Paper, so it’s not like we’ve got out of the woods, we’ve got those coming down the track.”

Hillman said TNE and branch campus partnerships are long-term arrangements, which can involve a lot of money and reputation being put on the line.

Although he said Smith had done a better job than anyone else could have given the political realities, he said TNE is not a “quick win alternative to recruiting more international students in the UK”.

And Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, warned that establishing campuses abroad is “at best a complement not a substitute for getting international students to come here”.

Portes told THE that the lack of a target in the “bland” strategy is a secondary issue because it does not alter the behaviour of either universities or students.

“Crucially, the government as a whole has successfully communicated to key overseas markets that it wants to reduce the number of foreign students. The strategy – and the way it has been presented – doesn’t change that much, and that is unfortunate.”

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com