‘Concerning’ drop in 18-year-olds applying for early Ucas deadline

The number of 18-year-olds applying to the UK’s most competitive courses has fallen nearly 5 per cent this year, with the share of most disadvantaged applicants also slipping.

Some 39,020 people of school-leaving age have applied to courses with a 15 October deadline, including medicine and veterinary sciences and those at the universities of Cambridge and Oxford.

This figure is down 4.9 per cent on last year’s 41,010 early deadline applicants, in a possible sign that recent record rises in university applications may not hold up for 2027-28 entry. Applications via Ucas from international students were also down.

A sizeable increase in 19-year-old applicants could not compensate for this drop, with the total number of applicants overall falling 3 per cent. 

Those applying from the country’s most disadvantaged backgrounds have declined in England, Scotland and Wales, with only Northern Ireland experiencing an increase.

Taken together, that represents a 2 per cent decrease in early deadline applicants from under-represented communities. 

The figures, released by admissions service Ucas, could cause alarm within the sector. Higher education providers already face a steep decline in the number of school-leavers in the general population as 2030 approaches.

It follows record numbers of students in the most recent admissions round in August but an overall decrease in the entry rate for 18-year-olds, from 32 per cent in 2025 to 31.6 per cent this year.

Ucas’ latest figures for the first stage of application for the 2027 cycle account for approximately 10 per cent of all applications the service will process in this round.

One cohort that did increase its share was that of 19-year-old applicants – up 16 per cent to 6,880 – something Ucas chief executive Jo Saxton said could indicate young people’s preference for “taking additional time to consider their next steps”. The share of over-30s applying also grew.

The number of applicants from all ages and UK nations applying to study medicine has grown to 25,840, up from 25,770 – a jump of 0.3 per cent.

According to Ucas, the total number of international undergraduate applicants using its service fell 7.3 per cent between 2025 and 2026. Only a small proportion of overall applicants from overseas apply via Ucas but this drop reflects wider data as institutions grapple with the consequences of a tightened immigration system and concern over soaring visa rejection rates.

China remains the largest international market, with 5,230 applicants sending in their bids for UK universities, but this is down 520 people year-on-year, while applicants from the US fell by 350 (a drop of 16.4 per cent) and Singapore by 130 (7.2 per cent drop). Applicant numbers from Hong Kong also declined.

Ucas leader Jo Saxton admitted the figures “show a concerning decline in the overall number of UK 18-year-olds and international students”.

She added: “More concerning is the decline in applicants from the most disadvantaged backgrounds across the UK. It’s vital that students feel able to progress to the opportunities that are right for them, and there is still plenty of time for prospective applicants to explore their options ahead of the January equal consideration date.”

georgia.luckhurst@timeshighereducation.com