UK entry rate declines everywhere bar Scotland, Ucas data confirms

School-leavers’ entry rates into university have dropped in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, according to the final batch of data for this year’s higher education admissions cycle.

Some 36.1 per cent of 18-year-olds domiciled in England are headed to university, down from 36.9 per cent last year. The proportion of Welsh 18-year-olds entering higher education has fallen from 29.1 per cent in 2025 to 28.9 per cent this autumn.

While Northern Ireland retains the highest enrolment rates in the UK, its figure fell from 39.6 per cent to 38 per cent. In 2022, the rate was 40.7 per cent.

Only Scotland recorded a marginal increase in the percentage of young people it sends into higher education.

Overall, the UK entry rate for 18-year-olds stands at 35.4 per cent this year, down from 36.1 per cent.

In what may be seen as positive news for the sector at a time of changing policy on immigration, 66,610 international applicants have been accepted into UK institutions – up 3 per cent on last year. However, yesterday’s release of data showing a sharp decline in student visa applications in the key month of August could temper that news.

The statistics, released by the admissions service Ucas, confirm a picture suggested after A-level results were released last month: that more school-leavers have failed to secure entry to their first (firm) choice of institution.

In terms of where they’re heading, 68.6 per cent of English, Northern Irish and Welsh 18-year-old applicants were placed in their top-choice university by the end of this year’s cycle, compared with 71.9 per cent last year.

On results day, Mark Corver, a former director of analysis and research for Ucas, told Times Higher Education that this year seemed like an “unexpectedly harsh year for young UK applicants”.

According to Lucia Costantini, a senior consultant at dataHE, the fall in first-choice placements comes “despite continued growth in the underlying population”.

“Much of the recent growth in entrant numbers has been driven by demographics, rather than by an increasing propensity among young people to enter higher education,” she said. “With the 18-year-old population projected to begin declining within the next few cycles, a stalled – or falling – entry rate materially changes the outlook.”

Costantini continued: “The longstanding assumption that higher education will continue to expand can, therefore, no longer be taken for granted. This does not necessarily mean the sector is heading for sustained contraction. But it does mean that future growth will increasingly need to be won – through higher participation, greater market share, new student populations or different forms of provision – rather than delivered by demographics alone.”

However, dataHE’s analysis of the figures found a considerable difference between how diverse parts of the 18-year-old population participate in admissions season.

Recent research has suggested just 22 per cent of white working-class children consider university to be key to landing a good job, and the British Social Attitudes survey shows similar scepticism about the value of the graduate premium across wider society.

“This year’s decline is concentrated among white 18-year-olds,” Costantini said. “The trajectory for other major ethnic groups has been very different. Entry rates among black, Asian and mixed 18-year-olds have risen again this year.

“The result is an increasingly striking divergence in participation between ethnic groups,” she concluded, “and another example of why the headline national entry rate can conceal very different trends within the student population.”

georgia.luckhurst@timeshighereducation.com