‘Insurance’ choice future still unclear despite admissions surge

The jury is still out on whether “insurance” choices should be retained in UK university admissions long term, despite a surge in applicants enrolling at their back-up option this year, experts have said.

After elite universities became more selective in confirming places, the 2026-27 admissions round saw nearly 11 per cent of 18-year-old students heading to their insurance choice – the highest proportion in recent years.

Earlier this year, the admissions service Ucas floated the idea of moving away from its current system – in which hopeful attendees apply to five universities before nominating a “firm” and an “insurance” choice – but it eventually decided to make no changes.

Admissions teams said insurance choices made numbers management more uncertain, as most applicants who fail to secure a place at their first-choice university opt to use clearing to find an alternative.

Jess Lister, director of education at consultancy Public First, said the high number of students placed in their insurance choices this year was caused by the behaviour of high-tariff institutions.

“I think what we’ve seen this year is a slight downturn in universities accepting people who’ve missed their grades, compared to previous years.

“We’ve had years directly impacted by Covid; we’ve had years where universities were struggling to recruit. What’s really interesting is that it seems higher-tariff universities are actually trying to maintain their tariff.”

Pointing to examples including Cardiff University’s ambition to “return to the grades typically ‘expected’ of a Russell Group institution”, revealed last year by Times Higher Education, Lister said: “Potentially we’ve hit a sort of high-water mark for what [sorts of students] these high-tariff universities are willing to admit.”

Lister said it was too early to say whether the trend would continue, but insurance places might grow in importance if high-tariff institutions continue to be more selective.

Those who advise prospective students said the ability to make an insurance choice was still important to applicants.

“This year, we’ve definitely noted that insurance [choices] have become more prevalent,” said Hayley Lemon, head of university strategy and global futures at Dukes Plus Consultancy.

“It’s an interesting trend to see, but I think it’s a bit more complex [than the figures suggest].”

She said a key test would be how many students have declined their insurance choice in favour of going into clearing – which will become more evident when the data for the full cycle is published on 10 September.

Ed Richardson, managing director of Keystone Tutors, which also advises applicants to some of Britain’s highest-ranking institutions, said “people are thinking quite wisely about what the insurance option would look like”.

In contrast to previous generations of students, he said, current applicants were taking the time to make more informed decisions about which universities to list on their Ucas applications.

Rob Tucker, head of admissions at London South Bank University, said many applicants viewed their insurance choice as the more realistic option, whereas firm choices reflected an “aspirational” decision or “the one they’re going to really push for”.

Maggie Smart, director of data and analysis at Ucas, struck a careful note, however, calling this year’s findings only a “subtle change in admissions behaviour”.

“The admissions landscape is influenced by a range of factors each year,” she said.

“This year’s outcomes reflect growing applicant numbers, sustained demand for higher-tariff universities, and the range of considerations providers take into account when making decisions.”

georgia.luckhurst@timeshighereducation.com