Direct international recruitment ‘more exposed to policy shocks’

Universities’ over-reliance on direct international student recruitment is leaving them too exposed to policy volatility, according to a new report from the British Council.

The body found that in 2023-24, nearly three-quarters (72 per cent) of all overseas entrants were recruited directly, with no prior experience of UK education. The proportion was higher – 76 per cent – among postgraduate taught students.

The remainder were recruited via pathways such as prior UK study in schools or colleges or taking part in UK universities’ transnational education or foundation programmes.

Having pre-existing engagement with the UK was identified in the study as being more resilient to recent shocks that have led to unpredictable enrolments.

UK overseas entrants peaked at 298,930 in 2022-23, before falling back to 267,230 in 2023-24 amid a tightening of visa rules and a harsher political climate.

The sharpest decline came among students who were directly recruited, the study, produced for the council by Education Insight and Jisc, found while other pathways bucked the downward trend.

This was because decisions made by directly recruited students can be “more immediately exposed to UK visa policy changes, affordability pressures and shifts in student sentiment”, it says.

In contrast there is a “vital stabilising buffer” provided by someone already being on a UK-linked pathway, according to co-author Janet Ilieva, director at Education Insight, “because they have already made a commitment to UK education”.

Authors said the findings showed the need for universities to diversify their recruitment to a “more balanced mix of routes” to ensure they are less exposed to external risks.

A “portfolio approach to internationalisation” could involve expanding TNE programmes, strengthening undergraduate-to-postgraduate progression and building closer partnerships with UK schools.

More flexible intakes and staged payment models were also identified as being options for universities, as well as developing “returner pathways” that make it easier for alumni to come back to the university for further study if they wish to work upon completing their initial course.

Maddalaine Ansell, director education at the British Council, said: “It is critical that UK higher education builds resilience in international student recruitment in a volatile environment.

“This research shows that institutions with stronger progression pipelines and diversified entry routes are better placed to weather unpredictability and market shocks.”

tom.williams@timeshighereducation.com