‘Past its peak’ US higher education system faces ‘polycrisis’

The “polycrisis” facing US higher education could reduce universities’ influence over the great issues of the day, it has been warned.

Following decades of booming enrolment, futurist Bryan Alexander, adjunct professor at Georgetown University, argues in his latest book that the sector reached its peak in around 2012.

Peak Higher Ed: How to Survive the Looming Academic Crisis highlights the forces that risk pushing academia even “further downslope” – although Alexander makes clear this is only “one possible future for American higher education”.

“We’re facing a whole series of pressures, from the demographic transition, souring public attitudes, an actively hostile governing party…escalating costs, climate change, an unpopular and fragile business model, likely decline of international enrolment and the negative parts of AI,” he told Times Higher Education.

Alexander warned that this “polycrisis” could lead to universities struggling to have the same impact on key issues such as social justice, climate change and artificial intelligence as they have traditionally enjoyed.

To avoid the managed decline of the higher education system, he added: “We need to redesign higher ed to best fulfil our mission, and to protect our people.”

In the book, Alexander warns that a consequence of being past the peak of higher education could mean a shift from “college for all” toward “college for some”.

Nevertheless, Alexander said there are some reasons to be hopeful, including signs that some campuses are taking a more democratic approach to redesign, and how academics are engaging with the climate crisis.

He also said the past year has seen an enrolment rebound, driven mainly by community colleges, and online education continues to grow.

“It might be that those two forces drive enrolment on for perhaps a decade.

“At the same time, however, we’re seeing many cuts to faculty and staff numbers, as well as some institutional mergers and closures.”

As for artificial intelligence, Alexander said it can improve student learning, accelerate research and improve operational efficiency – but it is unclear yet whether it will be more of an opportunity or a threat.

“Right now, we’re on the knife edge…serious problems beset us. There’s no good and scalable solution to the cheating problem. Students, as well as staff and faculty, can lose learning and skill practice by relying on AI to replace some of their functions.

“Higher ed’s reputation might sink further if the public perceives the post-secondary experience as out of touch with the post-AI world, or vitiated by AI-enabled cheating and learning loss.”

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com