New Colombian president ‘unlikely to follow Trump’s HE playbook’

Colombia has become the latest country to elect a right-wing ally of Donald Trump as its next leader but experts say it is not a given that Abelardo de la Espriella will follow the American president’s lead in attacking universities.

The businessman and lawyer won the country’s election earlier this month with a narrow 49.7 per cent lead and will probably focus his immediate efforts on his campaign promise to crack down on crime and drug trafficking.

In the meantime, Colombian universities are looking to vice-president elect José Manuel Restrepo to understand what the swing back to a right-wing administration could mean for the sector.

Restrepo served as a minister in the Iván Duque administration of 2018-22, which oversaw the introduction of free tuition at public universities for those belonging to lower income and disadvantaged groups. That widening of access has been expanded further in recent years.

His return to government follows a fiercely contested battle for the presidency, which saw de la Espriella triumph over left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda, despite Cepeda standing as a close ally of sitting president Gustavo Petro.

Leaders in the region have sent messages of congratulations to de la Espriella in the days since his win, including the right-wing populist president of Argentina, Javier Milei.

Trump said de la Espriella had “won big”, while his secretary of state Marco Rubio said the US looked forward to “working closely” with the new president. “Colombia’s best days are ahead,” Rubio added.

Juan David, a dean at CESA Business School in the Colombian capital of Bogotá, told Times Higher Education: “The signal I’d pay closest attention to is not De la Espriella himself – it’s the vice-president elect.”

Restrepo has a long history in higher education, David explained, including studying for a doctorate in higher education management from the University of Bath, and serving as rector of three Colombian universities.

“He has already stated publicly that the new government will uphold university autonomy and maintain a mixed public-private system. That’s a concrete institutional commitment, not a campaign slogan, and it comes from someone who has actually managed universities.”

Colombia has four types of higher education institution: professional technical institutions, technological institutions, university institutions or technological schools, and universities. All are regulated by the Ministry of National Education.

In 2024, Colombia celebrated a record number of enrolments in higher education, with more than 2.5 million people studying in the sector. Of that figure, 1.4 million were registered at public institutions.

In the same year the proportion of young people entering university right after finishing high school reached 45.9 per cent nationwide, up from the 39.7 per cent recorded in 2021.

But Colombia’s degree completion rate is lower than other countries. According to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) figures from last year, the share of first-time entrants in bachelor’s programmes who drop out after the first year is higher in Colombia than the OECD average, at 22 per cent versus 13 per cent.

Sandra Guarín, vice-president for international affairs at Del Rosario University, told THE: “While much of the international commentary has focused on Abelardo de la Espriella’s alignment with Donald Trump and his law-and-order agenda, I believe the implications for higher education may be more nuanced than many observers expect.”

Unlike the preference of Petro’s left-wing administration for public universities, Restrepo and la Espriella’s approach could focus more on private institutions, she said.

“I would not anticipate an adversarial relationship between the incoming administration and universities. If anything, the sector may experience a shift away from some of the tensions that emerged during recent years regarding the role of private higher education.”

The incoming administration, she suggested, held the “prevailing view” that “private universities are essential partners in expanding educational opportunities and supporting national development, rather than institutions that operate outside the public interest”.

Funding, Guarín said, would likely be “driven more by fiscal realities than ideology” in a country facing “significant budgetary constraints”. The situation could place “greater pressure” on public universities to “demonstrate their impact and performance”.

“Overall, my assessment is that the most likely scenario is not a ‘culture war’ approach to universities similar to that seen in parts of the United States, but rather a more market-oriented and performance-driven higher education agenda,” Guarín said.

“The influence of José Manuel Restrepo suggests a government that will view universities primarily as strategic actors for competitiveness, innovation, workforce development, global engagement and social mobility.”

The question of free speech, meanwhile, does not appear to be a major concern. “Colombian universities operate within a strong constitutional framework that protects institutional autonomy and academic freedom,” noted Guarín, while Juan David said: “Restrepo’s own record is that of someone who built debate culture inside universities…there’s a stated orientation toward pluralism that I think is worth watching, even if it’s early to verify.”

Not all were as sanguine about the incoming leader. Santiago Quintero, a PhD researcher at King’s College London with a focus on Latin America and the Global South, said de la Espriella’s approach towards the sector had so far proved “general and rather ambiguous”.

Quintero suggested that the new administration would look to develop “productivity-oriented training, including short programmes on AI” and to focus the curriculum on technology “and private sector-focused” innovation. An emphasis on practical and skills-based learning may be attractive in a country with a “long-standing deficit” on technological development, he said, but it could be seen as a way to force academics to “cede control of the curriculum”.

He also pointed to the new administration’s emphasis on cuts, which include de la Espriella’s ambition to reduce state bureaucracy by as much as 40 per cent.

“His whole campaign platform has been grounded on the shrinking of state spending,” Quintero said.

“How massive investment in free public education is going to be sustained under such an approach to public finance is, to say the least, worrisome.”

georgia.luckhurst@timeshighereducation.com