UK has ‘zero chance’ of meeting international earnings target

There is “zero chance” of the UK meeting its ambitions to hit £40 billion in education exports by 2030 under current policy settings, a senior sector leader has warned.

Gary Davies, deputy vice-chancellor at London Metropolitan University, was responding to the Department for Education’s release of its Higher Education Sector Action Plan, which forms part of the government’s International Education Strategy.

Compiled by the Education Sector Action Group, which includes Universities UK International (UUKi), the British Council and admissions service Ucas, the document sets out a goal to make the UK the “global partner of choice at every stage of learning”.

It calls on UK universities to “help stabilise and restore sustainable growth in international student recruitment” and to “focus on improving market diversification” in source countries.

It also spells out expectations for universities to “increase export value through international recruitment, TNE [transnational education] expansion, and global partnerships”.

Skills minister Jacqui Smith said the plan represents the “‘how’ behind our ambition to grow the value of education exports to £40 billion a year by 2030”.

“We’re outlining the road map for how UK providers can take advantage of the UK’s unique position and meet rising global demand for high-quality and prestigious education,” she added.

But the Home Office’s commitment to reducing immigration has included tighter rules for overseas students looking to study in the UK, including the 2023 ban on most international students bringing their dependants, as well as the coming imposition of the international student levy.

Critics say such measures will make it extremely difficult to hit the £40 billion figure.

Last week it was revealed that UK study visa numbers in the peak application month of August fell sharply. In that month, 360,700 applications were made for sponsored study visas, a 16 per cent decline on the corresponding period in 2025.

London Met’s Davies welcomed the government’s international education strategy. “It gets the basic diagnosis right, that international education is a great success for us [as a country] and is a major contributor to economic growth, soft power, skills development and so on,” he said. “But there’s a massive tension between what they’re saying around trying to grow to £40 billion in education exports and what they’re doing on immigration.

“I would say there’s zero chance that they’re going to make that £40 billion because international student numbers are dropping like a stone right across the sector and you won’t make that target with TNE [transnational education] and other things.”

Approximately 19 per cent of London Met’s student population come from countries outside the European Union. Reflecting on the general operating environment, Davies said: “I've been doing this for 25 years; there’s never been a period where it’s been so bleak for UK institutions.

Meanwhile, the Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) – regulations governing universities that enrol foreign students – have also become stricter. A sponsoring university must maintain a course enrolment rate of at least 95 per cent (up from 90 per cent), a course completion rate of 90 per cent (up from 85 per cent) and a visa refusal rate less than 5 per cent (down from 10 per cent) to meet the new rules.

Sponsors that fail to meet any of the BCA metrics could have their sponsorship licence revoked.

The action plan advises the sector to “build [BCA] compliance capability” with the help of UUKi. But Janet Ilieva, founder and director of research consultancy Education Insight, said different parts of government needed to work together to perform a “rigorous assessment of the unintended consequences of immigration policy”.

For instance, “The UK risks setting itself a domestic [visa compliance] benchmark that is exceptionally high by international standards,” she said. “OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] evidence shows England is already performing strongly, with 90 per cent completion among international full-time undergraduates – above the reported measures for Australia, Canada, France and the Netherlands.

“Setting thresholds that make UK universities appear to be failing domestically while their outcomes compare strongly internationally, risks damaging the very reputation for quality the International Education Strategy is seeking to strengthen.”

And Jess Lister, director of education at research consultancy Public First, was unconvinced there were other markets the UK could tap up for international students.

Recent forecasts find that the number of prospective undergraduates from China and Hong Kong will fall by the end of the decade, while growth in demand from India will plateau. The government’s own visa data, cited within the Higher Education Sector Action Plan, suggests international student recruitment could now be about 20 to 30 per cent below the peak reached in 2023.

“It is very difficult to see where sustainable growth in international student numbers could come from,” Lister said. “There are some countries where there is probably some untapped growth potential but these by and large aren’t stable markets that could be relied upon for the long term.

“The only thing that could really shift the dial in a positive direction, at a sector level, would be visa policy change that boosts the UK’s global competitiveness.”

Davies agreed, adding: “There’s no light at the end of the tunnel because none of the political parties, apart from the ones that are very unlikely to be elected, are saying anything that’s really positive about [international students].”

Although Canada has vastly reduced its own international student admissions, and Australia has just announced the introduction of a UK-style dependants ban, Davies said rival markets beyond the obvious anglophone competitors were looking to seize on the opportunity to snap up students.

“Other countries are really smelling blood in the water and circling,” he said. “Everybody’s teaching in English.”

georgia.luckhurst@timeshighereducation.com