Canberra migration duel a ‘potential nightmare’ for universities

Escalating restrictions on overseas students could harm Australian universities financially, sector representatives have warned, as political parties duel over migration policy.

Prime minister Anthony Albanese says foreign students are being enmeshed in efforts to reduce net overseas migration, after updated Treasury forecasts – revealed in the 12 May federal budget – showed that the government expects to overshoot its previous projections by 55,000.

Albanese said his Labor government had already reduced net migration by 45 per cent after it “inherited” high migration from its coalition predecessors. “We’ve been working on…getting those numbers down,” he told ABC TV.

“There’s a range of measures in the budget…that you’ll see come out over a period of time. We’re already changing, for example, the way that we’re dealing with students. There is more work to do and we’re doing it.”

Opposition leader Angus Taylor promised to reduce net migration even further in his budget reply speech, while declining to specify by how much because “Labor always exceeds its immigration targets”.

“This much I promise: the coalition will deliver one of the biggest cuts to immigration in the history of this country,” Taylor told parliament. “Labor puts Australians second whereas the coalition will always put Australians first.”

Taylor vowed to stop non-citizens from accessing welfare programmes, and said a coalition government would restrict immigration to the number of homes constructed each year. “Never again will a government be able to bring in more people than our housing can support.”

The National Tertiary Education Union estimated that this approach could cut net migration by around 40 per cent to 175,000 a year. “It’s obvious that a migration cut of that magnitude would mean going after international students, who make up a third of net overseas migration,” said union president Alison Barnes.

“The devil is in the lack of detail. It’s a potential nightmare for universities.”

Recently published financial accounts show that Victoria’s public universities derived 34 per cent of their income from international students last year, up from 32 per cent in 2024 and 30 per cent in 2023. “All sides of politics should rule out going after international students and commit to measures that properly fund universities,” Barnes said.

Universities Australia said both sides of politics were treating international students as “low-hanging fruit” in the migration debate. “After two years of instability and policy swings, what the sector and students need now is stability, certainty and a clear long-term strategy,” said CEO Luke Sheehy.

“Significant cuts to international student numbers would have real consequences for the economy and our universities at a time both are doing it tough. Australia cannot afford another race to the bottom driven by stop-start policy settings.”

Sheehy said overseas students comprised only about 6 per cent of home renters in Australia.

International education insiders expected policy measures to discourage overseas enrolments in the budget. That did not occur, although the budget allocations included an extra A$20 million (£11 million) for “enhanced scrutiny of onshore and offshore student visa applications”, and A$74 million to crack down on frivolous asylum applications.

International Education Association of Australia CEO Phil Honeywood said the budget had spared the sector the “punitive policy measures” many had feared, but that could be because the government wanted to save a “headline” about being “tough on migration” for later in the year.

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com