‘Don’t expect growth’, international educators warned

Overseas enrolments in Australia are unlikely to grow any time soon, but the federal government is shifting the balance to higher “value” students and spreading the benefits more evenly across the country, according to the assistant minister for international education.

Julian Hill has told educators to anticipate “policy certainty” but not growth. “I don’t think people should expect to see more student numbers,” he told Universities Australia’s annual conference on 26 February.

Hill said the future for the sector lay in “getting more value for Australia – more economic value, more soft power [and] market diversification, particularly into South-east Asia.” The emphasis on value was good news for universities, which were “growing well” this year, and for the sector’s overall image.

“It’s a very positive market signal globally that Australia welcomes genuine, high quality students,” he said. “That’s the message we continue to put out.”

Forthcoming data will also reveal a geographical rebalancing, Hill said. “There’s been a percentage growth in commencements in the ACT [Australian Capital Territory], Northern Territory, South Australia, Western Australia, and a reduction in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria. That’s terrific. That’s sharing the benefits of the sector more widely.”

He said policy changes over the past two years had nullified the “unsustainable” growth in the “less reputable parts of the sector” following the post-Covid reopening of Australia’s borders. “Headline commencements” were down by about 15 per cent while overall student numbers were flat. “As students conclude, we should see a bit of a moderation in student numbers to more sustainable levels.”

The UK government’s international education champion, Steve Smith, said educators must find ways to deal with potential breaches of social licence before governments felt compelled to intervene with “draconian” responses.

Smith said the UK was currently experiencing English language and immigration compliance issues, including students “disappearing into the world of work” or applying for asylum when their visas approached expiry. The country had also seen an “explosion” in master’s by research enrolments after undergraduate and taught master’s students were banned from bringing their dependants.

“Unless the sector finds a way of having a dialogue with government about how to deal with those excesses, the danger is that governments…will have to make a blanket decision which could actually damage things.”

UK policies encouraging transnational education have proven so effective that roughly half of the country’s international enrolments are outside the country. But panellists advised educators against treating offshore operations as a replacement for declining commercial returns from onshore student flows.

“If it is purely about short-term financial correction for things you can no longer do in your home campus, it will fail,” warned Lawrence Pratchett, CEO of edtech company UniReady Global.

Curtin University vice-chancellor Harlene Hayne said establishing offshore operations required patience and careful choice of partners. “It’s not something that can happen quickly, and it is something where everybody has to come into the relationship with shared values and not…just make a buck,” she told the conference.

“If you’re going to get married in another country, you need to make sure that the partner is one that you’re…happy to spend at least the next couple of decades with. Financial gain is really a decades-long process, not a day-long process.”

Australian universities should also put less commercial emphasis on their onshore international operations, the conference heard. Hilligje van’t Land, secretary-general of the International Association of Universities, said Australia’s high fees meant “we will only have the privileged at the table”.

Van’t Land contrasted the country’s “unfair” system with the “zero fees” approach in many European nations, for international as well as domestic students. “It is…much more equitable, inclusive and ethical,” she said. “It allows for many more people to…participate in life as well-informed citizens for the future.”

But Business Council of Australia chief executive Bran Black said the commercial heft of Australian education exports should be celebrated. “Australia’s international education sector is one of our great success stories,” Black told the conference.

“Given [that] federal government funding accounts for only 45 per cent of total university funding…we [should] be doing everything we possibly can to strengthen and grow this sector. Yet, time and again, international students are treated as a problem to be managed rather than an asset to be valued and – wherever possible – enhanced.”

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com