Record Australian international income ‘from onshore students’

The value of Australian education exports hit an all-time high last financial year, as the higher education sector claimed an escalating share of foreign enrolments. However, more and more students are enlisted from within Australia, suggesting that the rise in revenue is unlikely to be sustained.

Recently released data shows that international education is earning record amounts, but increasingly from recycled students. Between July and October, 40 per cent of student visas went to people applying from onshore, up from 28 per cent in the 2023-24 financial year.

Over one-third of higher education visas obtained in recent months were granted to applicants within Australia, up from a little over one-fifth in 2022-23.

The Department of Home Affairs statistics suggest that government policies to contain the post-Covid spike in overseas enrolments will eventually affect the higher education sector’s revenue base, as fewer fresh recruits arrive to replace departing foreign students.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data shows that 157,000 international students came to the country in 2024-25, down from 204,000 in 2023-24 and 278,000 in 2022-23. Meanwhile, the number of students leaving Australia increased by 112 per cent in 2023-24 and a further 48 per cent in 2024-25.

This happened despite concerted resistance against efforts to drive them away. By the end of October, the caseload of foreigners fighting student visa refusals in the Administrative Review Tribunal had swollen to almost 46,000 – up from about 37,000 at the end of June, 11,000 in mid-2024 and 2,000 in mid-2023.

Would-be students must pay a A$3,580 (£1,770) fee to challenge visa rejections, and can only do so if they applied for their visas from within Australia.

Offshore applications for student visas over the past two financial years have declined by 27 per cent in higher education and 55 per cent across the other educational sectors. People in Australia’s biggest source markets have found it increasingly difficult to obtain visas, with success rates in October slumping to 86 per cent for applications from China and 57 per cent from India.

These setbacks have so far failed to reverse the industry’s soaring profitability. International education earned Australia A$53.6 billion in 2024-25, 5 per cent more than in the previous year and 43 per cent more than in the pre-pandemic peak year of 2018-19.

Income has multiplied more than two-and-a-half times since the Covid-19 trough year of 2021-22 and well over three times since the previous low in 2012-13, when the industry was worth a relatively meagre A$16.9 billion.

Universities are not so far being constrained by recently announced changes to visa processing. All public and private universities remained at least 20 per cent short of meeting their 2026 quotas, and their students were not subject to visa processing delays, according to Department of Education advice posted on 19 December.

Nine private higher education institutions had already exceeded their 2026 allocations by at least 15 per cent, meaning that their students faced substantial waits to have their visa applications processed.

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com