Getting ahead of the storm
Climate crisis is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Researchers at the United Arab Emirates University have developed a methodology for analysing rainfall patterns that could support flood warning systems and help the nation manage its water supply
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The United Arab Emirates does not get a lot of rainfall, but when it rains, it pours, and that places many areas at risk of flash flooding. Coastal areas can be particularly susceptible to rainstorms. Furthermore, in arid and semi-arid areas such as the Arabian Peninsula, where water is a precious resource, understanding and predicting rainfall and storm patterns is crucial for effective water management.
At the United Arab Emirates University (UAEU), researchers have developed an innovative methodology for analysing rainstorms and their intensity. They are exploring how this could be developed to improve existing hydrological models and support early warning systems for flash flooding.
Mohsen Sherif, professor of water resources at UAEU, says one of the difficulties the UAE has with rain is that the network of rain gauges is limited and vast areas are not covered, giving meteorologists an incomplete picture of rainfall distribution and intensity. This new approach could fill in the blanks.
“In this research, we use satellite datasets with high temporal and spatial resolution to assess the rainfall in the different areas that have not been measured by field observation and to ensure an unbiased analysis of rainstorm patterns,” says Sherif. “This will be, of course, very efficient if we can use the different products of the satellite images to predict the distribution of rainfall in such areas and would maximise water harvesting.”
Sherif is joined on this project by PhD student Mohamed Elkollaly, who co-authored their recent paper on event-based rainfall analysis in arid and semi-arid climates. Their novel storm volume-duration-frequency methodology challenged conventional rainfall frequency analyses, finding that longer rainstorms did not necessarily yield the largest volume of rainfall, and extreme intensity was not the sole preserve of shorter storms.
Their approach can be used to create more accurate and reliable hydrological models and support comprehensive flood risk vulnerability assessments, allowing policymakers to prepare for flooding threats and allocate resources to areas most likely to be affected.
“Decision makers and professionals can now design storm drainage systems that match the storm dynamics for a specific location,” says Elkollaly. “We investigated rainfall behaviour from an event-based perspective and developed a comprehensive methodology that integrates storm attributes with frequency analysis. We applied our methodology across the entire UAE, highlighting nine distinct geo-climatic regions.” They can predict and manage flash floods more effectively and plan urban developments based on these storm classifications.
Much is yet to come from the research. Elkollaly says interdisciplinary approaches that draw expertise from hydrology, environmental engineering and statistics will be vital for taking it further. The government’s support is invaluable, too. The UAE’s National Center of Meteorology supplies researchers with high-resolution, quality-controlled rainfall data that allows them to perform a more detailed and accurate analysis over a longer period of time.
Sherif hopes this methodology could be adapted for real-time rainfall analysis. “Rainfall is becoming more intense, so you have heavy storms in shorter durations, which would most likely generate flash floods,” says Sherif. Climate crisis is bringing us more extreme weather events, and when it comes to storm preparation, to be forewarned is to be forearmed.