‘Party is over’ for Australian international education

Australia’s post-Covid surge in international student numbers has ended, new data suggest, even though overseas enrolments in higher education are at record levels.

Newly released Department of Education statistics show that foreign student numbers fell by 0.5 per cent last year on the back of a 15 per cent decline in the ranks of new students.  

The slump mainly affected vocational education institutions and stand-alone English language colleges, where commencing student numbers fell 23 per cent and 37 per cent respectively, costing the two sectors around 66,000 fresh enrolments. International commencements in schools declined by 12 per cent, or about 1,000 new students.

By contrast, a 0.7 per cent increase in overseas higher education commencements helped drive the sector’s international enrolments to a record 545,000 – almost 50,000 more than in 2024, and over 100,000 more than in the pre-Covid peak year of 2019.

The figures suggest the government is succeeding in its strategy of pursuing value rather than volume in international education by prioritising “high-quality” students over raw numbers. Education exports reached a record A$55 billion (£29 billion) last year, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The International Education Association of Australia said Canberra had also succeeded in its policy objective of reducing student numbers. “Given the Albanese government’s determination to make our beleaguered sector even smaller, they will be happy with this latest data release,” said chief executive Phil Honeywood. “Every measure that they concern themselves with, including commencements and enrolments, shows a downward trend.”

Honeywood said anti-immigration lobbyists were focused on net overseas migration (NOM) figures, and any NOM increases were being driven by other visa categories – particularly working holiday visas – and “not our international students”.

Department of Home Affairs data show that issuances of working holiday visas hit a record 321,000 last financial year – well over the previous peak of 258,000 in 2012-13 – and were on track to set a new record this year. Student visa grants declined last year and were well below previous peaks.

The tally of current and former international students within Australia has exceeded a million in recent years, fuelling concerns about their impact on local infrastructure – particularly housing. Experts say the figures reflect a failure of graduating students to leave as much as the arrival of new students.

Recently released ABS data show that 744,000 foreign students left Australia last year – the second highest figure on record, and about 50,000 more than in 2024. A record 318,000 overseas students also arrived – 27,000 more than in 2024 – largely because of an influx of higher education students.

The influx may not last, however, with immigration officials rejecting an increasing proportion of student visa applications from some of Australia’s top source markets – particularly Nepal, India, Pakistan, the Philippines and Bangladesh.

The average success rate for student visa applicants across the five countries in January, the most recent month for which data are available, was 62 per cent. This included combined grant rates of 69 per cent for higher education students and 33 per cent for vocational and language students.

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com