Formal learning ‘in decline’ as people look to online resources

A post-Covid rebound in structured training appears to have puttered out in Australia, with the proportion of adults and adolescents engaged in formal study plunging by about one-tenth over four years.

Nineteen per cent of Australians aged between 15 and 74 were studying for certificates, diplomas or degrees in 2024-25, down from 21 per cent in 2020-21, according to new Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data.

The proportion involved in work-based training plummeted even more, from 23 per cent to 19 per cent over the same period.

Monash University higher education expert Andrew Norton said the figures pointed to a re-emergence of a trend that universities had “kind of been quietly terrified about” since the advent of massive open online courses almost two decades ago.

Norton said multiple data sources before the coronavirus pandemic had revealed a consistent picture of long-term decline, in both formal study for qualifications and informal training organised by workplaces, suggesting that people were increasingly turning online for their educational needs.

Work-based training had been particularly affected, because people who could demonstrate new skills in the workplace had little need of paperwork to prove it. Universities had been relatively insulated because they certified “an overall package of knowledge”.

Norton said the data suggested that participation in structured learning had rebounded in 2020-21, compared with the results from the survey’s previous wave in 2016-17, but the latest figures showed that the recovery had ended. And with artificial intelligence now part of the suite of online learning options, universities could not expect to be as “protected” as in the past.

AI will raise “a major question mark over the credibility of degrees”, Norton warned. “Packaged units of education” will mean little if people think “you’ve been cheating your way through the degree”.

The figures come from the ABS’ four-yearly Survey of Work-Related Training and Adult Learning, which is being discontinued. The final wave found that 20 per cent of people living in major cities were undertaking formal study, compared with just 13 per cent of respondents in outer regional or remote areas.

People with disability or “restrictive” conditions were almost 25 per cent less likely to be participating in structured learning than their able-bodied peers. Within the disability community, men were 20 per cent less likely to be undertaking formal study than women.

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com