Declining overseas enrolments slow UK’s education export growth

Growth in revenue from UK education exports has slowed, with declining university enrolments blamed for the sluggish performance.

Statistics released by the Department for Education (DfE) on 2 July show that higher education accounted for 72.4 per cent of all education-related exports and transnational education (TNE) activity in 2024.

But this figure represents a drop of 1.5 percentage points from 2023.

Overall, total UK education exports and TNE activity expanded by 2.5 per cent between 2023 and 2024 to £36.7 billion – a notable decline on the 10.8 per cent growth rate recorded between 2022 and 2023. The government’s recent International Education Strategy targeted increasing education exports to £40 billion by 2030.

Higher education exports did rise in 2024, but only minimally, up 0.5 per cent, from £26.4 billion to £26.6 billion.

In its report, the DfE admits that the low growth rate can be attributed “partly” to the reduction in international higher education student enrolments in recent years.

TNE activity – education programmes delivered outside the UK – recorded a 17.1 per cent increase in revenues, reaching £3.6 billion in 2024. However, the vast bulk of this (83.6 per cent) relates to growth in schools and early years provision, rather than university activity.

It comes as many universities look to make up for declining international student enrolment at home by opening campuses abroad. Recent examples include expansions into India by the likes of the universities of Bristol, Lancaster, York and others.

Meanwhile, out of more than £26 billion in export revenues generated by higher education in 2024, £23.9 billion, or 89.9 per cent, can be attributed to the tuition fees and living expenses paid by non-UK students. In 2023, international higher education students generated revenues of about £23.7 billion.

In terms of national breakdown, England accounted for £20.3 billion of that 2024 total, Scotland for £2.5 billion; Wales for £700 million; and Northern Ireland, £400 million.

London remains a prime destination for international students. It accounted for 30 per cent of total higher education export revenues, and its £7.2 billion in activity contrasts sharply with the £1.2 billion generated in the north-east, the lowest-performing region.

In a continued trend of recent years, students from outside the European Union predominate: India, China and Nigeria were the top three countries of origin for revenues associated with international fees and living expenses, followed by Pakistan and the US.

The analysis is released just months after the government vowed to unlock “new markets” for universities and to target increasing the value of education exports in its second international education strategy.

Unlike its 2019 iteration, the 2026 strategy does not set a target for international student numbers, instead promising to “sustainably recruit high-quality international higher education students”, and to do so “from a diverse range of countries”.

Jan Bamford, professor of international higher education at London Metropolitan University, said the growth in total revenue would ultimately “take the government closer to its 2030 target”.

Overseas campuses and degree offerings will “continue to present a growth opportunity for cash-strapped UK universities”, she suggested.

But standards remain a key consideration. Bamford said: “The concern remains the quality of the student experience at TNE partners and the monitoring of quality, where cash-strapped universities are reducing the number of overseas visits to partners, despite the opportunities for income generation in a struggling sector.”

Vincenzo Raimo, an international higher education consultant, said the growth in TNE activity was further proof that universities are “looking beyond traditional international student recruitment as they diversify their international strategies”. However, the headline figures told only “part of the story”, he continued.

“Universities are now actively exploring the full spectrum of TNE models – from branch campuses and joint universities at one end through to validation, franchising, articulation partnerships and online delivery at the other. Each offers a different balance of investment, financial return, strategic control and risk,” he said. “The challenge for institutional leaders is no longer simply whether to engage in TNE, but which forms of TNE best align with their capabilities, appetite for risk and long-term strategy.

“Whether the government reaches its £40 billion education export target is ultimately less important than whether universities are generating sustainable, resilient international income. The next phase of internationalisation needs to be judged not just by growth in exports, but by the quality, resilience and financial sustainability of those exports.”

Simon Marginson, professor of higher education at the University of Bristol and a professor emeritus of the same subject at the University of Oxford, suggested that hopes of maintaining a truly internationally minded sector faced an uphill battle.

“International education in higher education is in serious trouble in the UK – if the objective, which is questionable, is to maintain the high level of financial dependence of the last decade,” he said.

“Growth targets are now a pipe dream, given that migration resistance dominates mainstream politics and the decline in numbers from China, driven primarily by factors in China itself, seems irreversible.”

georgia.luckhurst@timeshighereducation.com