UK international postgraduate recruitment ‘slumps 44 per cent’

Universities UK has warned against moves to scrap or scale back the UK’s graduate visa route by releasing estimates suggesting it “directly contributed” to an extra 632,000 student enrolments and £60 billion economic boost in five years, while reporting that postgraduate taught enrolments plunged more than 40 per cent last month following previous visa changes.

With ministers having put the graduate visa route under review by the Migration Advisory Committee amid a drive to cut net migration, and Labour accused of deliberate “silence” on the issue, UUK published analysis arguing that the visa route is “critically important for UK jobs, growth and global ambitions”.

UUK argues that further visa changes are unnecessary as ministers are focusing on backward-looking net migration figures showing a boom in international student numbers that is already over – with a tightening of visa rules for overseas students’ dependants that took effect in January, meaning postgraduate taught students can no longer bring family members to the UK, another factor depressing numbers.

UUK said that a survey it conducted of 73 universities revealed a “significant decline” in overseas enrolments, particularly at taught postgraduate level, where numbers were 44 per cent down in January, year-on-year. This figure was 41.3 per cent down on forecasts.

A fall of such magnitude in overseas recruitment to postgraduate taught courses – where fees are higher than on undergraduate courses for overseas students – would deliver a significant blow to institutions’ finances.

UUK said it would not be releasing the full survey at this point.

The organisation did release material from modelling estimating that the graduate visa “has directly contributed to 632,000 additional international first-year enrolments over the five-year period 2019-20 to 2023-24, equivalent to an additional net economic contribution of £62.6 billion to the UK economy relative to the baseline growth scenario, over the duration of studies”.

The economic impact estimate relies on previous modelling by London Economics.

UUK also highlighted the latest data from Enroly, a platform used by about 60 universities, which “suggests that international student demand for the UK is down significantly on last year, with overall deposits down by more than a third on the same point in 2023”.

Meanwhile data collected by IDP Education has found a third (37 per cent) of international students surveyed “said the government’s intention to review the graduate visa has meant that they are now re-considering study abroad plans or inclined to choose another destination”, according to UUK.

Vivienne Stern, UUK’s chief executive, said that there was “now a real danger of an over-correction” on international student recruitment.

“The UK is extremely fortunate to be a popular destination for international students. The whole country benefits from their decision to spend a few formative years with us,” she said.

“I regret the fact the government appears to want to diminish our success in this area. Our new data shows that if they wanted to see a reduction in numbers, they have already achieved that through policy changes introduced earlier this year. If they go further, they will damage the economies of towns and cities throughout the UK, as well as many universities.”

The UUK interventions come shortly after a survey of member institutions by the Chartered Association of Business Schools found that three-quarters reported a fall in international student recruitment across the January intake, with the losses most concentrated at taught postgraduate level.

John Foster, chief policy and campaigns officer for the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), said: “International students make a big contribution to local economies right across the UK while they are here. When they go home, they are ambassadors for the UK around the world. Selling a British education is an export success story for the UK.”

He added: “This analysis shows that speculation comes with a cost, with uncertainty surrounding whether the government will change or withdraw the graduate visa already damaging UK universities’ competitiveness.”

john.morgan@timeshighereducation.com