Nobel Prize Predictions, 2002-10

September 23, 2010

Nobel Prize Predictions, 2002-10
Data provided by Thomson Reuters Research Services Group, 2002-10
2010D. L. Coleman, J. M. Friedman (leptin) %3Cbr /%3EE. A. McCulloch, J. E. Till (stem cells) %3Cbr /%3Eand S. Yamanaka (iPS cells) %3Cbr /%3ER. M. Steinman (dendritic cells)P. O. Brown (DNA microarrays) %3Cbr /%3ES. Kitagawa, O. M. Yaghi (metal-organic frameworks) %3Cbr /%3ES. J. Lippard (metallointercalators)C. L. Bennett, L. A. Page, %3Cbr /%3ED. N. Spergel (WMAP)%3Cbr /%3ET. W. Ebbesen (surface plasmon photonics)%3Cbr /%3ES. Perlmutter, A. G. Riess, B. P. Schmidt (dark energy)A. Alesina (politico-economics)%3Cbr /%3EN. Kiyotaki, J. H. Moore (credit cycles)%3Cbr /%3EK. M. Murphy (social economics)
2009E.H. Blackburn, C. W. Greider, J.W. Szostak (telomeres) (won in 2009) %3Cbr /%3EJ.E. Rothman, R. Schekman (vesicle transport) %3Cbr /%3ES. Ogawa (fMRI)M. Grätzel (solar cells)%3Cbr /%3EJ.K. Barton, B. Giese, G.B. Schuster (charge transfer in DNA) %3Cbr /%3EB. List (organic asymmetric catalysis)Y. Aharonov, M.V. Berry (Aharonov-Bohm effect and Berry phase) %3Cbr /%3EJ.I. Cirac, P. Zoller (quantum optics) %3Cbr /%3EJ.B. Pendry, S. Schultz, D.R. Smith (negative refraction)E. Fehr, M. Rabin (fairness) %3Cbr /%3EW.D. Nordhaus, M.L. Weitzman (environmental economics) %3Cbr /%3EJ.B. Taylor, J. Galí, M.L. Gertler (monetary policy)
2008 S. Akira, B.A. Beutler, J. Hoffmann (toll-like receptors) %3Cbr /%3EV.R. Ambros, G. Ruvkun (miRNAs) %3Cbr /%3ER. Collins, R. Peto (meta-analysis)Roger Y. Tsien (green fluorescent protein) (won in 2008)%3Cbr /%3EC.M. Lieber (nanomaterials) %3Cbr /%3EK. Matyjaszewski (ATRP)A.K. Geim, K. Novoselov (graphene) %3Cbr /%3EV.C. Rubin (dark matter) %3Cbr /%3ER. Penrose, D. Shechtman (Penrose tilings, quasicrystals)L.P. Hansen, T.J. Sargent, C.A. Sims (dynamic modelling) %3Cbr /%3EM.S. Feldstein (public economics) %3Cbr /%3EA.A. Alchian, H. Demsetz (property rights)
2007F.H. Gage (neurogenesis) %3Cbr /%3ER.J. Ellis, F.U. Hartl, A.L. Horwich (chaperones) %3Cbr /%3EJ. Massagué (TGF-beta)S.J. Danishefsky (epothilones) %3Cbr /%3ED. Seebach (synthetic organic methods) %3Cbr /%3EB.M. Trost (organometallic and bio-organic chemistry)S. Iijima (nanotubes) %3Cbr /%3EA.B. McDonald (neutrino mass) %3Cbr /%3EM.J. Rees (cosmology)E. Helpman, G.M. Grossman (international trade) %3Cbr /%3EJ. Tirole (industrial organisation) %3Cbr /%3ER.B. Wilson, P.R. Milgrom (auctions)
2006 Mario Capecchi, Martin J. Evans and Oliver Smithies (gene targeting) (won in 2007) %3Cbr /%3EP. Chambon, R.M. Evans, E.V. Jensen (hormone receptors) %3Cbr /%3EA.J. Jeffreys (DNA profiling) G.R. Crabtree, S.L. Schreiber (small molecule chembio) %3Cbr /%3ET.J. Marks (organometallic) %3Cbr /%3ED.A. Evans, S.V. Ley (natural products)Albert Fert and Peter Grünberg (GMR) (won in 2007) %3Cbr /%3EA.H. Guth, A. Linde, P.J. Steinhardt (inflation) %3Cbr /%3EE. Desurvire, M. Nakazawa, D.N. Payne (erbium-doped fibre amplifiers)Paul Krugman (trade) (won in 2008) %3Cbr /%3EJ.N. Bhagwati, A.K. Dixit (int’l trade) %3Cbr /%3ED.W. Jorgensen (econometrics) %3Cbr /%3EO.D. Hart, B.R. Holmstrom, %3Cbr /%3EO.E. Williamson (corporate governance) (won in 2009)
2002-05M.J. Berridge (cell signalling) %3Cbr /%3EA.G. Knudson, B. Vogelstein, R.A. Weinberg (tumour suppressor genes) %3Cbr /%3EF.S. Collins, E.S. Lander, J.C. Venter (gene sequencing) Robert H. Grubbs (metathesis method) (predicted and won in 2005) %3Cbr /%3EA. Bax (NMR and proteins) %3Cbr /%3EK.C. Nicolaou (total synthesis, taxol) %3Cbr /%3EG.M. Whitesides, S. Shinkai, J.F. Stoddart (nano self-assembly)M.B. Green, J.H. Schwarz, E. Witten (string theory) %3Cbr /%3EY. Tokura (condensed matter) %3Cbr /%3ES. Nakamura (gallium nitride-based LEDs)Robert F. Engle, Clive W.J. Granger (time series, ARCH and cointegration) (predicted and won in 2003) %3Cbr /%3EDaniel Kahneman (decision under un­certainty) (predicted and won in 2002) %3Cbr /%3ER.J. Barro (growth) %3Cbr /%3EE.F. Fama, K.R. French (EMH) %3Cbr /%3EP.M. Romer (growth) %3Cbr /%3ER.H. Thaler (behavioural economics)

Thomson Reuters has a long history of using citation data to study the characteristics of the research records of Nobel prizewinners, dating back to studies by Eugene Garfield in the 1960s. Since 2002, Thomson Reuters’ predictions of future winners have been published on its website. The table above summarises the predictions, and the entries in bold highlight the successful ones to date. It also provides those names newly chosen in 2010. It should be emphasised that individuals selected in previous years are still considered contenders for a Nobel prize.

The record of successful forecasting indicates that citation profiles provide a powerful indicator of

peer esteem. Taking chemistry as an example, reviewing just the top one-tenth of 1 per cent still leaves 700 names to review. Using a variety of citation measures, Thomson Reuters focuses on researchers who rank, typically, in the top one-hundredth of 1 per cent. Other factors are then considered, including the receipt of prestigious prizes in the past. Add a pinch of intuition, and potential winners bubble to the surface.

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