Long view

November 19, 2004

The report Cross-Border Higher Education: An Analysis of Current Trends, Policy Strategies and Future Scenarios , published by the Observatory on Borderless Higher Education, suggests three scenarios for the next ten to 20 years.

The status quo scenario:

* The international mobility of institutions and their courses grows more rapidly than that of students and staff

* Greater polarisation between institutions that charge full fees to foreign students and those that do not

* Trade in educational services is not substantially liberalised.

The competition scenario:

* The profit motive drives growth in the number of full-fee-paying students

* More HE providers, including private companies

* Anglophone countries lose market share to other OECD countries

* Public funding cut in countries where universities raise more money from overseas.

Emerging economies scenario:

* Some countries develop higher education systems capable of competing in the global market

* Increased competition reduces access to higher education in developed countries

* Entrepreneurial universities and private companies establish campuses in emerging economies.

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