Global IT spending will be slow to recover after geopolitical uncertainty, predict analysts

April 8, 2003

Brussels, 07 Apr 2003

Economic and geopolitical uncertainty has significantly affected information technology (IT) spending worldwide, although a slow recovery is expected, said a worldwide industry standard report published on 3 April.

According to the 2003 IDC worldwide black book, initial forecasts for IT spending in 2003 estimated that there would be a growth of 3.7 per cent. However, forecasts have since been revised and it is now expected that IT spending will slowly get off the ground, reaching a total of 851 billion dollars (794 billion euro) for 2003.

European spending growth is expected to lead at 2 per cent, followed by the US at 1.5 while Japan will see a 1.4 per cent decline.

'The outlook for the next six months continues to be extremely volatile and a double-dip IT recession cannot be ruled out in a worst case scenario. But the fundamental drivers remain solid,' said Stephen Minton, director of IDC's worldwide IT markets group.

'Once the fog of war has cleared, there will be a gradual recovery in corporate profits and business confidence, and this will translate into increased IT spending,' he added.

Indeed, depending on the economic and political climate at the end of 2003, analysts predict that IT spending will recover in 2004 with a four to six per cent growth. According to Mr Minton, over the next three to five years, the industry will adjust to growth rates of six to seven per cent.

In terms of the factors spurring on recovery, the report believes that mobility based solutions and the proliferation of combined handheld devices will play an important role in boosting hardware sales, which have suffered hard times due to price competition

CORDIS RTD-NEWS / © European Communities

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