Experts urge caution on positive UK study visa data

New visa data suggesting that the number of international students seeking to study in the UK appears to have recovered to pre-pandemic levels have been met with caution by experts.

The latest statistics published by the Home Office, for the year to June 2021, show that just over 281,000 study visas were granted to students and their dependants, 11 per cent more than in the year to June 2019.

Such a recovery would seem to spell good news for UK universities hoping to boost international recruitment this autumn, especially as one of the country’s main rivals in attracting students from overseas, Australia, continues to suffer a downturn.

The latest data from Australia suggest that the number of international students with a study visa starting courses in the country in the year to June was down 34 per cent on the year to June 2019.

But an analysis published this month for a student housing charity in the UK points to factors that could work against a complete return to normality for international recruitment in the country this autumn.

The briefing, prepared for Unipol by Matt Durnin, global head of insights and consultancy at the British Council, warns that there are signs of “weak demand” from east Asian nations, with agents reporting that “most students are not keen to embark on the offshore, online learning experience that last year’s cohort was forced to accept”.

“Faced with these two concerns, a significant number of incoming students are cancelling or delaying their plans, particularly at the postgraduate level,” the paper adds.

The briefing also points out that visa statistics, while a good indicator of students’ intentions, might not paint a complete picture of whether applicants end up travelling to the UK.

It says many overseas students’ plans to travel to the UK last year for a January start were “derailed” by the emergence of the Alpha, or Kent, coronavirus variant in the country.

“These late-stage reversals distorted the data, likely understating the drop in student arrivals,” it says.

The briefing also warns that there is an increasing trend of students “hedging bets” and applying to universities across more than one country, another reason why visa approvals might not tell a complete story. Countries such as the US and Canada are also becoming more attractive again as study destinations, it says.

A more detailed assessment of the Home Office data by Times Higher Education suggests other reasons for caution in thinking the UK has emerged fully from the Covid recruitment dip.

Although study visa approvals were up by 11 per cent on the comparable pre-pandemic period, those issued to students from China – the UK’s most important source for international students – fell by 11 per cent.

Janet Ilieva, founder of research consultancy Education Insight, said it was still “very positive” to see the general rebound in the visa data for the UK, especially for countries where demand had been affected in the past by the country’s decision, now reversed, to scrap post-study work visas.

These include India, where the number of visas granted was up by 30 per cent in the 12 months to June 2021 compared with the year before, Pakistan (up 78 per cent) and Nigeria (up 125 per cent), which is now the third-biggest nation for UK study visas, after China and India.

However, Ms Ilieva pointed out, students from these countries were predominantly master’s students, which meant universities would “need to sustain this recruitment effort annually”.

simon.baker@timeshighereducation.com