Misplaced bets 1

March 19, 2004

Stephen Unwin claims that God has a 67 per cent chance of existing (March 12). What makes me suspect that anybody presenting such an argument is 100 per cent likely to believe in God? Since there are a near infinite number of possible variations on the factors that one could include in such a calculation and the statistical significance that could be given to each one, it seems rather likely that any statistician who attempts such a task will prove whatever it is that he already believes.

After careful calculations, I would suggest that the scientific value of such an argument is something close to 0 per cent.

Thomas Larque
University of Kent

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